Past present and predicted future of India

Past present and predicted future of India The Republic of India has a population of 1.2 billion according to the survey done in 2009. It covers an area of 3.1 million sq km. The major languages spoken there are Hindi, English and 16 other official languages. It is a nation of diverse religions Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, Sikhism, Buddhism, and Jainism. The Monetary unit used there is the Indian Rupee (INR) = 100 paisa. The major export sectors are agriculture products, textile goods, gems and jewellery, software services and technology, engineering goods, chemicals, leather products. The Gross National Income (GNI) per capita income in regards with the World Bank report, 2008 was US$ 1070. It has the worlds largest democracy and second most populous country emerged as a major power in 1990s. India is highly diverse with its many languages, cultures and religion. A land of ancient civilisation, which unfolds its history dated as early as 1000 BC. Witnessing the creation and the demolition empires and kingdoms. It gained its independence on 15th August 1947. Thereafter, not looking back at what is left but what is there to make. After independence, the economic condition of the country was very poor. It addressed its economic crisis along with a combination of socialist planning and free enterprise. During the 1950s and 1960 the government focused on the Green Revolution thereby providing irrigation facilities combined with land redistribution schemes. India also focused on the education system by building infrastructures for schools colleges and universities thereby applied research facilities that trained one of the worlds largest scientific and technical establishment s. It has a powerful economy with is growing at a rapid pace. Religion, regional and cultural diversities exist against a background of poverty. This reflects in t he federal political system, whereby power is shared between the central government and the 28 states. India was under the social democratic-based policies till the year 1991 when it opened its doors to liberalisation. Two factors facilitated the emergence of labialisation phase. First were industrialist themselves who were beginning to find the government controls very strict and second was the export performance from overseas workers in the middle east which led to a comfortable level of foreign exchange reserves. This policy opened the doors to international trade and investments. The main motive behind the transformation and the deregulation of earlier practices was to replace the social democratic polices with capitalism so that there would be a high economic growth which would in turn increase the industrial production for the wellbeing of Indian citizens. Before the year 1991, the government had closed the Indian economy to the outside world. The Indian rupee was inconvertible and the high licensing fee prevented the foreign goods from entering the country. The countrys balance of payment crises in 1991 brought the country near bankruptcy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was bailed out in exchange for gold transferred to London as collateral. The Indian economy was at its worst and needed a reform. The Indian Government started to loosen the controls and the tariffs, duties and taxes were lowered. The country opened its doors to trade and investment. Privatisation was also encouraged and Globalisation was embraced slowly. Post the liberalisation, India progressed in areas like foreign investments, reforming the capital markets, deregulation of domestic business and reforming the trade market. In the year 1993 the National Stock Exchange was introduced. They remained at the forefront of modernisation of Indias capital and financial market. The share of consumer goods manufactured in India increased from 50.6% in 1990 to 72.5% during the five year trial period. The share of labour intensive exports in total manufactured exports increased from 13% to 34%. The share of High tech exports increased from 13% to 31%. The proportion of capital goods in total manufacturing imports increased from 26% to 61%. India increased their share of total exports. An overall effect in an increase in the trade was evident however there was no change in the Gross domestic product which still continued at 5.7%. The prices for food, beverage, tobacco animal, machinery and transport equipment fell marginally. The Indian companies suffered huge loss and competition from the foreign market. Quoting an example of the Ludhiana Knitwear company which specialised in garment manufacture suffered a loss of 21%. However, there was a lack of growth in the industrial sector which was earlier at 6.8% compared t 6.4%. India was now a market based economy. A revival of economic reforms and better economic policy in 2000s accelerated Indias economic growth rate. Indias Population had touched 1,028,610,328 and the growth rate of 2.11%. The whole nations economic infrastructure was undergoing stress. However the people below the poverty line percentage had drastically improved owing to the different provisions and self employment schemes introduced by the government. Stress was being laid on rural development as 70% of the Indian population were still living in villages. India was ranked fourth in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) IN 2001. The Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows increased by 65% as compared to the previous year, where are the Global FDI during that time had decreased by 40%. This was definitely an encouraging factor for the country. As quoted in the world investment prospect 2002 report, there was an annual Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of US$ 5.3 billion from 2002 until 2006. During the year 2005 2006 the overall production growth was 8.3% which was marginally lower than that of the previous year. Manufacturing speed had increased. Growth in the capital goods sector was there by 3 percentage higher than 2005. This was the time when sectors like the cotton textile, basic metals, transport, food products, jute and other fibber textiles, manmade textiles and rubber growth rate increased marginally. Exports were at an increase of 16.19% from the previous year however the oil import showed a sharp rise of 63%. The total Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) accounted for a $ 8472 million. This also impacted the foreign exchange reserve by a fall of 3.4%. The Indian rupee held the same value against the US$ but weakened its position against the Euro by 0.47%. Sharing direct trade links with the United Nations India too was affected because of recession. The export percentage went down almost by a quarter. Unemployment increased as the companys started to lay of their employees to cut down on the expenses. The textile and the handicraft industry were the worst affected. Figures reported from the FIEO (Federation of Indian export organisation) also revealed that the Tourist inflow had gone down by 37%. The year 2009 saw a decrease in the growth rate by 6.8% as well as the return of a large projected fiscal deficit of 6.8% of GDP which would be highest among the worlds. According to the recent reports provide over an year, India has been ranked as the eleventh largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth largest purchasing power party. The strong economic reforms adopted in the early 1990s proved to be good for the countrys fast paced economy and a free market activity for international competition and foreign investment. India is growing at a rapid pace and will soon emerge as a strong economic power with huge human and natural resources with skilled and experienced individuals. Today India is characterised as mainly a market economy. Indias service industry accounts for a total of 55% of the country Gross Domestic Product (GDP) while the industrial and the agricultural sector contribute to about 28% and 17% of the Gross domestic Product (GDP) respectively. Agriculture till date is the most predominant occupation of India and accounts for a total of 52% of the employment alone. The service sector accounts for another 34% of the employment hold and is followed by the industrial sector with a percentage of 14% of the employment. The labour force collectively holds half a million workers. In the agricultural field the major production is that of wheat, rice, oilseed, cotton, juice, tea, sugarcane, potatoes, cattle, water buffalo, sheep, goat, poultry and fish. In the industries consists of other subdivisions such as telecommunication, textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation, equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, information technology enabled services and softwares. As discussed previously the per capita income of India according to the World Bank report of 2008, is US$ 1,030 and is ranked on 139th position in the world. However its per capital production (PPP) is ranked 128th in the world at US$ 2,940. This shows that the trade had increased in a very short span of time which can be estimated roughly at 20 years time frame as India earlier was a closed economy. A total of 2% of the world trade has been recorded by the World Trade Organisation and Indias total merchandise is estimated at a total value of US$ 294 in the year 2006 and Indias total service trade inclusive of both import and export was estimated at US$ 143 billion. Thus, a collective total of US$ 437 billion in the year 2007 in comparison to the year 2004 at a total of US$ 253 billion. There has been a remarkable growth of 72% in this context. There has been a more evident increase in the GDP share by 24% in comparison to a minor share of 6% in the early 1990s The year 2009 when the entire world was still in the midst of the recession crises, India was able to escape the condition of extreme poverty even though the major trade links were with the United Nations. India recorded its highest GDP of 9% in the year 2007. This was the effect of liberalisation and its height. India now stands on the second position after China after having labelled itself as the fastest growing economy. In a report by an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), it states that the average growth rates of 7.5 % will double the average income in a decade. The inclusion of a few more reforms would accelerate the pace. In regards to China who liberated its economy in the year 1978, India is still at a slow pace and needs to continue liberalisation for the betterment of the country. Also reports reveal that provide all the obstacles in the path of liberalisation are removed, India would grow at a pace 10% higher than that of China. According to a report by the CIA World Fact book, it states that India escaped the brunt of global financial crisis because of the cautious banking policies and a relatively low dependence on export of growth. The domestic demand, driven by the purchases of consumer durables and auto (SOURCES, 2010) mobiles, has emerged as the key driver of the economy, as exports have fallen ever since the global crisis has started. Indias fiscal; deficit increased substantially in 2008 due to fuel and fertilizer subsidies, a dept waiver program for farmer, a job guarantee program for rural workers and stimulus expenditure. Economists have also predicted that by the year 2020, India will be among the largest economies of the world. The Indian government has already declared their commitment to the fiscal stimulus and the deficit reduction in the next two years. The government has also proposed the privatisation of some of the public industries owned by the government. The government has also forecasted the expenses for the necessary equipment and resources required for the removal of long term challenges which include inadequate physical and social infrastructure to carry out the necessary reforms. The only challenge that the Indian Economy will have to face in due course of time is the huge and growing population and their fundamental, social and environmental problems.

Supply Chain Risk Management

Supply Chain Risk Management is the concept of trying to foresee disruptions to timely supply of goods or services required by the organisation and creating systems to mitigate these at the lowest possible cost to the organisation and by so doing ensure that there will be continuity in the normal operations of the business. Supply chain risks have the potential to cripple a business’ operations and can have long and short term effects which may be difficult to recover from.A delay along a route is a short term problem whereas the presence of a monopoly supplier in the chain holding up stocks to force an increase in prices or shutting down for whatever reason is long term. Certain types of disruptions are both difficult to anticipate and rare, but very damaging when they occur; for example, natural disasters such as earthquakes are difficult to predict but have the potential to ruin entire factories and road networks wreaking havoc to the entire supply chain.Disruptions to supp ly can be anticipated and countered by building inventory or by having multiple redundant suppliers since it is highly unlikely to encounter a scenario where multiple suppliers are simultaneously disrupted. Both of these processes can be described as building supply chain reserves. Concept of Risk Risk can be perceived from various angles; one of its basic definitions being the probability of threat of quantifiable damage, injury, liability, loss or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities and that may be avoided through pre-emptive action.1 In developing an understanding of risk, it is necessary to incorporate its two fundamental facets; the first being the exposure to the uncertainty and the second being the actual outcomes upon occurrence of the event. 2 Hence, risk can be expressed as the product of probability and consequences of an event. Along with this, one must also be able to know the sources of the identified risk. 2 It is commo n to analyse risk by means of a matrix with 2 dimensions, probability and consequences but such an analysis has the main disadvantage of being reliant on risk perception.Risk perception depends on time, experience, location, attitude, position and possibilities to decide and scale of events. 2 It is also important to realise that risk has no technical value in and of itself, hence in developing a risk management process, the aim is to always do it at a minimum cost. 3 Risk Variety An overview of business risks in general is useful in understanding supply chain risk. Risks can be externally driven (environmental, external factors, competitors, customers, regulations), internally driven and decision driven.3 At times, managing supply chain risk may be difficult because of the interconnection of individual risks and actions that mitigate one risk may end up exacerbating another. For example, nitrogen gas used for bottling in large amounts may displace the local atmosphere and cause asp hyxiation. Increasing local stores may minimise the effects of a shortage of supply but immediately it increases storage costs and the possibility of leaks in a larger vessel.Broadly speaking, risks can be categorized as those that bring about delays in the supply chain and those that disrupt the normal flow. 4 Delays The occurrence of delays in material flows is the result of either of several possible factors such as; Inflexibility of suppliers hence inability to respond to changes in demand Poor output at supplier plants High levels of handling or inspections at border crossings In a scenario where these are frequent, historical trends can be used to create a forecasting tool against which with proper demand planning, these effects can be mitigated.In the local case of SZL, sugar is may be delayed by a day or two at the Limpopo Border post and analysis of past trends has allowed a conclusion to be drawn that a minimum and maximum stock level of 3 days and 1 week cover is sufficie nt to both cover for these drawbacks and at the same time neither be too much of an impedance to the cash flow of the organisation nor create a significant rise in local storage costs. Disruptions Disruptions by nature tend to be infrequent, difficult to predict and forecast but very damaging when they occur.Examples that fall under this category include labour strikes, terror strikes and fires. Some disruptions have effects that transcend over various industries and can even be international such as earthquakes or the tsunami in Japan in recent memory. Disruptions also adversely affect material prices which can pose a significant problem to business operations. These can be countered by building inventories or having multiple redundant suppliers. The decision making process however as to which path of action is governed by the following factors; Cost of inventoryCost of keeping inventory Accuracy of prediction of the disruption and available information Rate of obsolescence of mate rial whilst in inventory Likelihood of disruption For instance, MM juice concentrates are a high cost in storage, requiring refrigeration to maximise on lifespan but the decision is made to keep a significant amount within stock because of the uncertainty of the supply delivery time and the reality that upon the sea, there may be unforeseen disruptions.However, in the case of bottle preforms, not more than a week’s cover is normally kept because of the usual reliability of the suppliers and low likelihood of low supply. A recent incident however has necessitated to review this as an intra-factory incident at Megapak caused a mini-crisis within the organisation. Risk Handling Often, the strategies employed by companies protect against recurrent relatively low impact risks in the supply chain but tend to ignore high impact low likelihood risks.Suppliers with quality problems represent a common recurrent problem (labels with SZL for instance). Top manufacturers will deal with th e range of supply chain risks encountered by holding reserves in the form of excess inventory, excess capacity and redundant suppliers. 4 The key challenge facing management is to intelligently position and sizing of supply-chain reserves with a minimum impact on profits i. e. attain the greatest possible profit regardless of the level of supply chain risk and achieving this in an efficient manner.To development a risk management strategy that will work, it is necessary to first create a shared organization-wide understanding of supply-chain risk and then determine how to adapt general risk-mitigation approaches to local organizational circumstances. 4 This is achieved by stress testing and tailoring. Stress Testing This is a team exercise that aids managers and their organizations to both understand and prioritize supply-chain risk. A what-if scenario analysis can be employed to assist the key players to focus on the supply chain 1-link at a time.It is a brainstorming exercise that helps the company prepare for unforeseen events rather than the platform to debate the likelihood of such events. Such an exercise allows for risk-mitigation priorities to be made for the near, medium and long term. In addition to this, it leaves all involved parties with a clear idea of what risks might have an impact on sales, procurement costs, revenues, prices and possibly even reputation. 4 Tailoring Tailoring is the process of suiting the response to a risk to the organization and continuously monitoring to ensure that procedures and systems in place are suitable for the purposes of the business. Supply Chain Risk Management Supply Chain Risk Management is the concept of trying to foresee disruptions to timely supply of goods or services required by the organisation and creating systems to mitigate these at the lowest possible cost to the organisation and by so doing ensure that there will be continuity in the normal operations of the business. Supply chain risks have the potential to cripple a business’ operations and can have long and short term effects which may be difficult to recover from.A delay along a route is a short term problem whereas the presence of a monopoly supplier in the chain holding up stocks to force an increase in prices or shutting down for whatever reason is long term. Certain types of disruptions are both difficult to anticipate and rare, but very damaging when they occur; for example, natural disasters such as earthquakes are difficult to predict but have the potential to ruin entire factories and road networks wreaking havoc to the entire supply chain.Disruptions to supp ly can be anticipated and countered by building inventory or by having multiple redundant suppliers since it is highly unlikely to encounter a scenario where multiple suppliers are simultaneously disrupted. Both of these processes can be described as building supply chain reserves. Concept of Risk Risk can be perceived from various angles; one of its basic definitions being the probability of threat of quantifiable damage, injury, liability, loss or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities and that may be avoided through pre-emptive action.In developing an understanding of risk, it is necessary to incorporate its two fundamental facets; the first being the exposure to the uncertainty and the second being the actual outcomes upon occurrence of the event. 2 Hence, risk can be expressed as the product of probability and consequences of an event. Along with this, one must also be able to know the sources of the identified risk. 2 It is common to analyse risk by means of a matrix with 2 dimensions, probability and consequences but such an analysis has the main disadvantage of being reliant on risk perception.Risk perception depends on time, experience, location, attitude, position and possibilities to decide and scale of events. 2 It is also important to realise that risk has no technical value in and of itself, hence in developing a risk management process, the aim is to always do it at a minimum cost. 3 Risk Variety An overview of business risks in general is useful in understanding supply chain risk. Risks can be externally driven (environmental, external factors, competitors, customers, regulations), internally driven and decision driven.At times, managing supply chain risk may be difficult because of the interconnection of individual risks and actions that mitigate one risk may end up exacerbating another. For example, nitrogen gas used for bottling in large amounts may displace the local atmosphere and cause asphyxi ation. Increasing local stores may minimise the effects of a shortage of supply but immediately it increases storage costs and the possibility of leaks in a larger vessel.Broadly speaking, risks can be categorized as those that bring about delays in the supply chain and those that disrupt the normal flow. 4 Delays The occurrence of delays in material flows is the result of either of several possible factors such as; Inflexibility of suppliers hence inability to respond to changes in demand Poor output at supplier plants High levels of handling or inspections at border crossings In a scenario where these are frequent, historical trends can be used to create a forecasting tool against which with proper demand planning, these effects can be mitigated.In the local case of SZL, sugar is may be delayed by a day or two at the Limpopo Border post and analysis of past trends has allowed a conclusion to be drawn that a minimum and maximum stock level of 3 days and 1 week cover is sufficient t o both cover for these drawbacks and at the same time neither be too much of an impedance to the cash flow of the organisation nor create a significant rise in local storage costs. Disruptions Disruptions by nature tend to be infrequent, difficult to predict and forecast but very damaging when they occur.Examples that fall under this category include labour strikes, terror strikes and fires. Some disruptions have effects that transcend over various industries and can even be international such as earthquakes or the tsunami in Japan in recent memory. Disruptions also adversely affect material prices which can pose a significant problem to business operations. These can be countered by building inventories or having multiple redundant suppliers. The decision making process however as to which path of action is governed by the following factors; Cost of inventoryCost of keeping inventory Accuracy of prediction of the disruption and available information Rate of obsolescence of material whilst in inventory Likelihood of disruption For instance, MM juice concentrates are a high cost in storage, requiring refrigeration to maximise on lifespan but the decision is made to keep a significant amount within stock because of the uncertainty of the supply delivery time and the reality that upon the sea, there may be unforeseen disruptions.However, in the case of bottle preforms, not more than a week’s cover is normally kept because of the usual reliability of the suppliers and low likelihood of low supply. A recent incident however has necessitated to review this as an intra-factory incident at Megapak caused a mini-crisis within the organisation. Risk Handling Often, the strategies employed by companies protect against recurrent relatively low impact risks in the supply chain but tend to ignore high impact low likelihood risks.Suppliers with quality problems represent a common recurrent problem (labels with SZL for instance). Top manufacturers will deal with the ra nge of supply chain risks encountered by holding reserves in the form of excess inventory, excess capacity and redundant suppliers. 4 The key challenge facing management is to intelligently position and sizing of supply-chain reserves with a minimum impact on profits i. e. attain the greatest possible profit regardless of the level of supply chain risk and achieving this in an efficient manner.To development a risk management strategy that will work, it is necessary to first create a shared organization-wide understanding of supply-chain risk and then determine how to adapt general risk-mitigation approaches to local organizational circumstances. 4 This is achieved by stress testing and tailoring. Stress Testing This is a team exercise that aids managers and their organizations to both understand and prioritize supply-chain risk. A what-if scenario analysis can be employed to assist the key players to focus on the supply chain 1-link at a time.It is a brainstorming exercise that hel ps the company prepare for unforeseen events rather than the platform to debate the likelihood of such events. Such an exercise allows for risk-mitigation priorities to be made for the near, medium and long term. In addition to this, it leaves all involved parties with a clear idea of what risks might have an impact on sales, procurement costs, revenues, prices and possibly even reputation. 4 Tailoring Tailoring is the process of suiting the response to a risk to the organization and continuously monitoring to ensure that procedures and systems in place are suitable for the purposes of the business.

The Scarlet Letter By Nathaniel Hawthorne - 1598 Words

Nathaniel Hawthorne s The Scarlet Letter incorporates numerous significant and imperative images. This gadget of imagery is depicted well in the novel, particularly through the red letter A. The An is the best illustration as a result of the adjustments in the significance all through the novel. In the start of the novel, the red letter An is seen as an image of sin. The center of the novel is a move period, where the red letter An is seen in an unexpected way. In the initiation of the novel, the letter is taken as a name of discipline and sin. Hester Prynne bears the mark of the letter upon her midsection. She remains as a mark of an outsider before society. She is wearing this image to weight her with†¦show more content†¦This infers that Hester s transgression of bearing a tyke without the vicinity of a spouse will dependably be recalled. Amidst the novel is a move period where the letter An is seen uniquely in contrast to some time recently. In this area of the novel, Hester s appearance is changed to where she is no more seen as a man of sin. The letter changes from an image of sin to a more unclear image. Society now sees Hester as a man who is solid yet bears an image which varies herself. As of right now, Hester has figured out how to manage the letter. She has become more grounded from it; she finds herself able to withstand the weights of society. As she develop more grounded, her identity turns out to be more restricted to being seen as a heathen. The letter s importance has changed, Scorn, by a progressive and calm procedure, will even be changed to adore, unless the change be obstructed by a persistently new aggravation of the first feeling of hostility(147). This foretells the future occasions of the novel. Another perspective of the letter is that it depicts blame. It depicts the blame of Dimmesdale, the father of Hester s youngster. Hester has learned to manage her discipline and become more grounded from it, yet Dimmesdale, who went unpunished and

Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy For Bulimia Nervosa Essay

Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy For Bulimia Nervosa INTRODUCTION Bulimia nervosa is an eating disorder characterized by binge eating as well as by self-induced vomiting and/or laxative abuse (Mitchell, 1986). Episodes of overeating typically alternate with attempts to diet, although the eating habits of bulimics and their methods of weight control vary (Fairburn et al., 1986). The majority of bulimics have a body weight within the normal range for their height, build, and age, and yet possess intense and prominent concerns about their shape and weight (Fairburn et al., 1986). Individuals with bulimia nervosa are aware that they have an eating problem, and therefore are often eager to receive help. The most common approach to†¦show more content†¦Behavioral techniques utilized by CBT are designed not only to change certain behaviors, but also to elicit the individuals cognitions associated with specific behaviors. COGNITIVE BEHAVIORAL TREATMENT OF BULIMIA CBT treatment typically lasts about 20 weeks and can be divided into three stages (Fairburn et al., 1993). In the first stage, the cognitive view on the maintenance of bulimia is presented, and behavioral techniques are implemented to replace binge eating with more stable eating patterns. In the second stage, additional attempts are made to establish healthy eating habits, and an emphasis is placed upon the elimination of dieting. Cognitive processes (previously outlined) are focused upon extensively in this stage; the therapist and the individual examine his/her thoughts, beliefs, and values which maintain the eating problem. The final stage is concerned with maintaining the gains made in therapy once the treatment has been terminated (Fairburn et al., 1993). The cognitive view of the maintenance of bulimia nervosa stresses that there is more to an individuals eating problem then just binge eating (and purging). Low self-esteem, extreme concerns about shape and weight, and strict dieting are all implicated in perpetuating the vicious cycle of bulimia (Fairburn et al., 1993). Within the first stage of treatment (weekly sessions 1-8), the following steps characterize the cognitive-behavioral approach: 1) orientShow MoreRelated Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy And Exposure With Response Prevention In The Treatment Of Bulimia Nervosa3130 Words   |  13 PagesCognitive-Behavioral Therapy And Exposure With Response Prevention In The Treatment Of Bulimia Nervosa Bulimia nervosa is an eating disorder with psychological, physiological, developmental, and cultural components. The disorder is commonly characterized by binge eating followed by inappropriate compensatory behaviors, such as self-induced vomiting, excessive exercise, fasting, and the misuse of diuretics, laxatives or enemas. 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